The Withdrawal Agreement Vote Odds: What to Expect?
With the Brexit deadline fast approaching, the question on everyone’s minds is whether or not the UK will approve the Withdrawal Agreement. This agreement is a crucial step towards the country’s departure from the European Union, and the decision on whether or not to approve it will have significant consequences for the UK’s future.
So what are the odds of the Withdrawal Agreement vote passing?
Recent polls have shown that the odds are not in Theresa May’s favour. Despite her efforts to get the EU to agree to changes in the deal, it appears that the Prime Minister will still struggle to secure enough votes for the Withdrawal Agreement to pass. A poll conducted by the Evening Standard in early March found that only 28% of MPs would vote for the deal, while the majority (56%) would vote against it.
This is not to say that the Withdrawal Agreement is dead in the water. There are still factors that could sway the vote in May’s favour. One of these is the fear of a no-deal Brexit, which many MPs view as potentially catastrophic for the country’s economy. Others worry that if they do not support the deal, they will be blamed for any negative consequences that result from Brexit.
The Prime Minister is also working hard to secure support from the Democratic Unionist Party (DUP), which has previously voted against the Withdrawal Agreement. If she is successful in winning over this key ally, it could be enough to push the deal over the line.
On the other hand, some MPs are likely to vote against the deal regardless of the consequences. Many Brexiteers believe that the Withdrawal Agreement does not provide a clean break from the EU and that it would leave the UK too closely tied to European regulations. Others are concerned about the backstop arrangement, which would keep Northern Ireland in the EU customs union if a trade deal cannot be agreed.
So what happens if the Withdrawal Agreement vote fails?
If the deal does not pass, it is unclear what will happen next. One possibility is that the UK will leave the EU without a deal on March 29th, which would be a disastrous outcome for many businesses and individuals. Another option is that the UK will request an extension to the Brexit deadline, which would require the approval of the European Union.
In conclusion, the odds of the Withdrawal Agreement vote passing are currently uncertain. While there are factors that could sway the vote in May’s favour, there are also many MPs who are firmly opposed to the deal. Whatever the outcome, the next few weeks will be crucial in determining the future of the UK’s relationship with the EU.